RATHER than augmenting water productivity, our planners are obsessed with building new reservoirs and expanding irrigated areas. The reason? More structures mean more money. Barring the wet monsoon years, the Indus basin frequently end­ures water scarcity. For the last 25 years, the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has declared water shortages every year and has not allocated water shares as enshrined in the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. Sindh has thus questioned the water availability certificate for the Cholistan irrigation scheme issued by Irsa early this year. In its summary to the Council of Common Interests, Sindh argued that Irsa’s own water accounts (1999-2023) reveal that Punjab and Sindh have experienced annual water shortages of 13.7 per cent and 19.4pc respectively. The water availability data presented by Punjab before Irsa was misleading. It left out the amount of water committed for some existing and future needs thus creating an impression of surplus water availability. It also failed to mention several current and future possible reductions. These reductions relate to the eastern river flows (2.98 MAF), India’s use of the western rivers (2 MAF), the possible use by Afghanistan of the Kabul river (0.5 MAF), the overestimation of water supplies in the water accord (a shortfall of 21.5 MAF), Bhasha dam storage (6.4 MAF), Mohmand dam (0.88 MAF), Nai Gaj dam (0.16 MAF), Kurram Tangi dam (0.9 MAF), flood canals including the Kachhi, Rainee, Greater Thal, Jalalpur and the Pat Feeder extension (3.34 MAF), the Chashma Right Bank canal (1.19 MAF), the minimum outflow to the sea (8.6 MAF) and the LBOD reclamation supplies (2.2 MAF). Put together, these requirements mean 50.65 MAF water every year. This amount dwarfs the purported surplus flow by a wide margin. From 1999 to 2023, the average annual flow below Kotri Barrage remained 14 MAF. Altogether, there is a colossal annual deficit of 36.63 MAF water in the Indus basin. A sprawling irrigation web for corporate farming is impractical. Various reports indicate a bleak picture of future river flows due to the impact of climate change. The chairman of the National Disaster Management Authority recently shared worrying data at a moot. He revealed that the country’s snow cover has decreased by 23.3pc in recent years. He said that the glaciers are melting at an alarming rate of 3pc every year, resulting in the loss of 16pc of the glacial mass over the past five years. He warned that while the melting glaciers might result in temporary water surpluses, the long-term implications were dire. With the cryosphere touching a precarious tipping point, planning a sprawling irrigation web for corporate farming is an impractical venture. The Greater Cholistan scheme entails the building of three dams on the Chenab river. These include the Chiniot dam, the Mid Ranjha dam and the Shah Jiwana dam, which will collectively store 3.5 MAF of water. The scheme also entails the construction of two barrages — the Bahawal Nagar and Hasilpur barrages on the Sutlej river. Ad­­ditionally, the scheme involves the 195 kilometre-long Chiniot-Hasilpur link canal with a capacity of 15,000 cusecs and two fe­­eder canals with a capacity of 8,500 and 5,500 cusecs. The Greater Cholistan sche­­me is designed to irrigate a command area of over 6m acres. If we add the 1.2m acres to be irrigated through the Smaller Cholistan scheme, the ambitious proposition would require even larger quantities of water. Overall, the scope of corporate agriculture is not confined to Cholistan. In August, during a session of the National Assembly, the minister for food security, Rana Ta­­nveer Hussain, rev­ealed that, under the Green Pakis­tan Initia­­tive, 4.8m acres of barren land had been earmarked across the country for corporate farming. Since corporate agriculture proj­e­cts are being desig­ned to produce grain for international trade, a reliable commodity supply is essential. This translates to the need for reliable water supplies to sustain corporate farming. According to a media report last month, Pakistan is seeking up to $6 billion in investment from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain over the next three to five years for corporate farming, with the aim of cultivating 1.5m acres of previously unfarmed land and mechanising the existing 50m acres of agricultural land across the country. Cultivating such an enormous land mass would require a massive irrigation network. Such an extensive infrastructure and investment of several billion dollars cannot be left at the mercy of erratic flood flows. An uninterrupted water supply is possible only through perennial rivers and canals. Punjab’s own share of water is already committed for existing canals. Therefore, it makes sense when Sindh, the lower riparian expresses concern at the development of new command areas.